Wannan binciken ya gabatar da wani bincike na farko na tsarin makamashi wanda aka warware a kowane awa, don cimma samar da makamashi 100% sabuntacce (RE) a ko'ina cikin Kudancin da Tsakiyar Amurka nan da shekara ta 2030. Binciken ya magance ƙalubalen yankin guda biyu na ci gaba da ci gaban tattalin arziki yayin da yake canza kaso mai yawa na sabuntacce (wanda makamashin ruwa ya mamaye) zuwa tsarin da ya fi rarrabuwa, mai juriya, da cikakken dorewa. Babban ƙirƙira ya ta'allaka ne ba kawai a haɗa wutar lantarki ba har ma da tsarkake ruwa da samar da iskar gas ta zamani (SNG) ta hanyar makamashi-zuwa-gas (PtG) cikin tsarin ingantacce guda ɗaya.
2030
A kowane Awa
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Binciken ya yi amfani da tsarin ingantacce na layi don rage jimillar farashin shekara-shekara na tsarin makamashi da aka haɗa, bisa ga biyan buƙatun wutar lantarki, ruwa, da iskar gas a kowane awa.
Tsarin shine kayan aikin inganta farashi wanda ke ƙayyade mafi kyawun gaurayar samarwa, ajiya, da ƙarfin watsawa. Yana amfani da bayanan yanayi na tarihi (2005-2009) don hasken rana da saurin iska don samar da ƙananan abubuwan ƙarfin aiki na PV da tashoshin wutar iska a cikin yankuna 15 masu ƙanana.
An raba nahiyar zuwa yankuna 15 masu ƙanana bisa ga iyakokin siyasa da tsarin kasuwannin makamashi don daidaita rarraba albarkatu da buƙatun watsawa daidai.
Tsarin ya gano cewa tsarin RE 100% yana yiwuwa a fasaha. Ƙarfin da aka saka ya mamaye ta hanyar hasken rana PV (kimanin GW 415) da makamashin iska (kimanin GW 200), tare da makamashin ruwa da ake da shi (kimanin GW 150) yana ba da daidaitawa da ajiya. Biomass da geothermal suna taka rawa ƙanana, masu haɗawa.
Wani muhimmin bincike shine amfani da tafkunan ruwa da ake da su a matsayin "batura na zamani." Ta hanyar tura makamashin ruwa da dabarun haɗin gwiwa tare da fitar da hasken rana da iska, buƙatar ƙarin fasahar ajiya ta lantarki ko wasu fasahohi ya ragu sosai. Wannan yana amfani da abubuwan more rayuwa da ake da su don kwanciyar hankali na grid.
Tsarin halin da ake ciki da aka haɗa yana nuna "ƙimar tsarin" haɗa sassa. PtG da tsarkake ruwa suna aiki azaman nauyi na ajiya masu sassauƙa, ba na baturi ba, suna ɗaukar samar da sabuntacce mai yawa kuma suna inganta amfani da kadarorin gabaɗaya, wanda ke haifar da farashi mai ƙasa.
Jigon tsarin shine matsalar inganta layi wanda ke rage jimillar farashin shekara $C_{total}$:
$\min C_{total} = \sum_{t,i} (C_{cap,i} \cdot G_{i} + C_{op,i} \cdot g_{i,t}) + \sum_{l} C_{trans,l} \cdot T_l + \sum_s C_{store,s} \cdot S_s$
Bisa ga:
1. Ma'auni na Makamashi (kowace awa): $\sum_i g_{i,t} + \sum_s (p_{s,t}^{dis} - p_{s,t}^{ch}) + \sum_l I_{l,t} = D_{t}^{elec} + D_{t}^{PtG} + D_{t}^{Desal}$
2. Ƙuntatawa na Ƙarfin Aiki: $0 \le g_{i,t} \le CF_{i,t} \cdot G_i$
3. Dynamics na Ajiya: $E_{s,t+1} = E_{s,t} + \eta_s^{ch} \cdot p_{s,t}^{ch} - p_{s,t}^{dis} / \eta_s^{dis}$
Inda $G_i$ shine ƙarfin fasaha $i$, $g_{i,t}$ shine samar da shi a lokacin $t$, $T_l$ shine ƙarfin watsawa, $S_s$ shine ƙarfin ajiya, kuma $D_t$ yana wakiltar buƙatu daban-daban.
Muhimman zato sun haɗa da bayanan yanayi na 2005-2009 don VRE, hasashen farashin fasaha na 2030 daga wallafe-wallafe, 8% matsakaicin farashin jarin da aka auna (WACC), da kiyasin buƙatun wutar lantarki (TWh 1813), ruwa, da iskar gas.
Bayanin Chati (Bisa ga Fitowar Tsarin Tsari na Al'ada): Babban chati mai fitowa zai nuna gaurayar samar da wutar lantarki na kowane awa don wakiltar shekara a cikin Tsarin Halin Da Ake Ciki (4). Chati mai tara yanki zai sami lokaci (awowi) akan x-axis da ƙarfi (GW) akan y-axis. Layer ɗin za su wakilta: Hasken Rana PV (yana nuna ƙwaƙƙwaran zagayowar rana), Makamashin Iska (mafi canzawa, rana da dare), Makamashin Ruwa (yana aiki azaman tushe mai sassauƙa/ma'auni, yana cike gibin lokacin da hasken rana da iska suka yi ƙasa), da siraran layer ɗin don biomass/geothermal. Layin sama yana wakiltar jimillar buƙatu, gami da amfani kai tsaye da nauyi don PtG/tsarkake ruwa. Chati zai nuna a zahiri yadda tura makamashin ruwa da nauyin haɗa sassa (PtG/Desal) suke "aske" kololuwar sauran VRE da kuma cike ramukan rashi, yana tabbatar da daidaito akai-akai.
Harka: Kimanta Tsakiyar Grid da Haɗa Sassa
Tsarin: Ana iya amfani da matrix na nazari mai axis biyu don kwatanta tsarin halin da ake ciki huɗu.
Tsara Tsarin Halin Da Ake Ciki:
Fahimta: Matsawa dama (grid mafi kyau) yana rage LCOE. Matsawa sama (ƙara sassa) yana rage jimillar farashin tsarin kuma yana ƙara juriya. Mafi kyawun ƙirar tsarin (Tsarin Halin Da Ake Ciki 4) yana buƙatar saka hannun jari a cikin duka abubuwan more rayuwa na watsawa da fasahohin haɗa sassa.
Muhimmin Fahimta: Wannan binciken ba binciken yiwuwa kawai bane; shi ne tsarin amfani da kadara na musamman na Kudancin Amurka—makamashin ruwa mai yawa—a matsayin mabuɗin grid na sabuntacce na gaba, wanda aka haɗa sassa. Haɓaka na gaske shine sake fasalin ruwa daga mai samarwa kawai zuwa babban baturin zamani na samar da grid na nahiyar, yana rage buƙatar sabon ajiya mai tsada sosai kuma yana ba da damar shigar da hasken rana da iska mai zurfi.
Matsalar Hankali: Hujja tana da ban sha'awa: 1) Haɗarin yanayi yana sa tsarin da makamashin ruwa ya mamaye ya zama marar dogaro. 2) Yankin yana da albarkatun hasken rana/iska na matakin duniya. 3) Matsalar ita ce rashin ci gaba. 4) Magani: Yi amfani da tafkunan ruwa da ake da su don ajiya, ba kawai samarwa ba. 5) Ƙari: Yi amfani da wutar lantarki mai yawa don yin man fetur kore da ruwa, ƙirƙirar tsarin makamashi-ruwa mai zagayawa. Hankali daga matsala zuwa mafita mai haɗa kai yana da daidaituwa kuma yana magance buƙatun tattalin arziki, fasaha, da daidaita yanayi lokaci guda.
Ƙarfi & Kurakurai: Ƙarfin tsarin shine tsarinsa na gabaɗaya, na kowane awa, tsarin inganta farashi da haɗa PtG/tsarkake ruwa mai ban mamaki—mataki fiye da yawancin binciken RE 100% waɗanda suka mai da hankali kan wutar lantarki kawai. Duk da haka, binciken yana da raunuka masu mahimmanci. WACC 8% yana da kyakkyawan fata ga kasuwannin masu tasowa; bincike mai hankali tare da ƙimar mafi girma (misali, 10-12%) yana da mahimmanci. Yiwuwar siyasa da tsari na babban grid na HVDC a ko'ina cikin nahiyar shine giwa a cikin ɗaki, wanda tsarin fasaha-tattalin arziki ya lalata. Bugu da ƙari, yayin da ake amfani da ruwa azaman ajiya yana da wayo, yana iya cin karo da haƙƙin ruwa da ake da shi, kula da ambaliya, da umarnin muhalli—ƙalubalen ingantawa da yawa wanda aka taɓa kadan. Binciken, kamar yawancin a fagen (misali, tsare-tsaren RE 100% na Jacobson et al. don Amurka), ya yi fice a yuwuwar fasaha amma yana buƙatar ƙwararrun bincike na abokan tarayya kan gudanarwa, kuɗi, da lasisin zamantakewa.
Fahimta Mai Aiki: Ga masu tsara manufofi da masu amfani da wutar lantarki a yankin, fifiko ya kamata ya zama: 1) Sabunta Gudanar da Ruwa: Fara gyara dokokin kasuwar ruwa da makamashi yanzu don ba da damar tashoshin ruwa suyi aiki cikin sassauƙa don ayyukan grid, ba kawai makamashi mai yawa ba. 2) Gwada Haɗa Sassa: Masana'antar ma'adinai ta Chile (buƙatar ruwa da wutar lantarki) ko cibiyoyin masana'antu na Brazil su ne cikakkun wuraren gwaji don ayyukan PtG/tsarkake ruwa. 3) Tsara Hanyoyin Grid da Dabara: Maimakon cikakken grid na nahiyar, mayar da hankali kan manyan hanyoyin biyu (misali, Brazil-Uruguay-Argentina don iska) waɗanda ke gina aminci da nuna fa'idodi. 4> Gwada Matsala tare da Kuɗi na Gaske: Gudanar da tsarin tare da farashin kuɗi na musamman na yanki, daidaitaccen haɗari don samun hoton capex na gaske. Binciken yana ba da hangen nesa na fasaha; mataki na gaba shine gina gine-ginen siyasa da kuɗi don tabbatar da shi.