Amfanin Ruwa, Iska, da Hasken Rana don Cikakken Samar da Makamashi Mai Sabuntawa a Kudancin da Tsakiyar Amurka

Table of Contents

1. Gabatarwa & Bayyani

Wannan binciken ya gabatar da wani bincike na farko, mai saurin warware tsarin makamashi na kowane awa, don cimma cikakken samar da makamashi mai sabuntawa (RE) a duk faɗin Kudancin da Tsakiyar Amurka nan da shekara ta 2030. Yankin, yayin da a halin yanzu yake alfahari da mafi ƙarancin sinadarin carbon a cikin gaurayawan wutar lantarki saboda yawan shigar makamashin ruwa, yana fuskantar ƙalubale masu mahimmanci daga sauye-sauyen yanayi da ke barazana ga albarkatun ruwa. Binciken ya binciki yiwuwar fasaha da tattalin arziki na canzawa zuwa tsarin da makamashin ruwa, iska, da hasken rana (PV) suka mamaye, tare da goyan bayan fasahohi masu ba da dama kamar watsa wutar lantarki ta babban ƙarfi kai tsaye (HVDC) da makamashi-zuwa-gas (PtG).

2. Hanyoyin Bincike & Tsarin Labari

2.1. Tsarin Makamashi da Rarraba Yankuna

Binciken yana amfani da tsarin ingantawa na layi don rage jimillar farashin tsarin na shekara-shekara. An raba yankin zuwa yankuna 15 masu haɗin kai, wanda ke ba da damar yin simintin musayar makamashi. Tsarin ya dogara ne akan warwarewa na kowane awa na shekara guda, yana ɗaukar sauye-sauyen hanyoyin samar da makamashi mai sabuntawa.

2.2. Tsarin Labari da aka Ayyana

An ƙirƙira manyan tsarin labari guda huɗu don tantance tasirin abubuwan more rayuwa da haɗin sassa:

• Tsarin Labari 1 (Yanki): Ƙaramin cibiyar sadarwar HVDC, galibi a cikin manyan yankuna.
• Tsarin Labari 2 (Ƙasa): Ƙarfafa haɗin HVDC a cikin ƙasashe.
• Tsarin Labari 3 (Faɗin Yanki): Cikakken haɗin cibiyar sadarwar HVDC a duk yankuna 15.
• Tsarin Labari 4 (Haɗaɗɗe): Ya ginu akan Tsarin Labari 3, yana ƙara buƙatun wutar lantarki don tsarkake ruwan teku (biliyan 3.9 m³) da samar da iskar gas ta roba (SNG) ta hanyar PtG (640 TWh_LHV).

2.3. Haɗa Tsarkake Ruwan Teku da Makamashi-zuwa-Gas

Tsarin labari na haɗaɗɗe shine sabon abu mai mahimmanci, yana motsawa fiye da samar da wutar lantarki kawai. Yana magance ƙarancin ruwa ta hanyar tsarkakewa kuma yana samar da man fetur mara carbon (SNG) don ayyukan masana'antu masu wuyar samun wutar lantarki, ta yin amfani da wutar lantarki mai sabuntawa da yawa wanda in ba haka ba za a dakatar da shi.

3. Muhimman Sakamako & Bincike

3.1. Gaurayawan Makamashi da Ƙarfin Samarwa

Mafi kyawun gaurayawa yana mamaye da hasken rana PV (~50-60% na samarwa), sannan makamashin iska (~20-30%), da makamashin ruwa (~10-20%). Ƙarfin makamashin ruwa da ake da shi yana taka muhimmiyar rawa ba kawai a samarwa ba, amma mafi mahimmanci, a samar da sassauci.

3.2. Nazarin Farashi: LCOE, LCOG, LCOW

Haɗa cibiyoyin sadarwa yana rage farashi. LCOE ya ragu daga 62 €/MWh a cikin tsarin labari na rarrabuwa (Yanki) zuwa 56 €/MWh a cikin tsarin labari na cikakken haɗawa (Faɗin Yanki). Tsarin labari na haɗaɗɗe yana samar da SNG da ruwan da aka tsarkake a farashin da aka bayyana, yana nuna yuwuwar tattalin arziki na haɗa sassa.

3.3. Matsayin Makamashin Ruwa a matsayin Ma'ajiyar Kaya ta Zamani

Wani bincike mai mahimmanci shine amfani da tsoffin madatsun ruwa a matsayin "batura na zamani." Ta hanyar tura makamashin ruwa da dabarun haɗin gwiwa tare da fitar da hasken rana da iska, buƙatar ƙarin ma'ajiyar kaya ta lantarki yana raguwa sosai. Wannan yana amfani da farashin abubuwan more rayuwa da aka nutse don fa'idodin kwanciyar hankali na babban cibiyar sadarwa.

3.4. Fa'idodin Haɗa Tsarin

Haɗa tsarkake ruwa da PtG yana haifar da rage samar da wutar lantarki da ake buƙata da kashi 5% da rage jimillar farashin tsarin da kashi 8%. Ana samun wannan ta hanyar amfani da makamashi mai sabuntawa da in ba haka ba za a dakatar da shi, yana inganta amfani da tsarin gaba ɗaya da tattalin arziki.

4. Cikakkun Bayanai na Fasaha & Tsarin Lissafi

Jigon tsarin shine matsalar rage farashi. Ayyukan manufa yana rage jimillar farashin shekara $C_{total}$:

$C_{total} = \sum_{t, r} (C_{cap} \cdot Cap_{r, tech} + C_{op} \cdot Gen_{t, r, tech} + C_{trans} \cdot Trans_{t, r1, r2})$

Ƙarƙashin ƙa'idodi don:

• Ma'auni na Makamashi: $\sum_{tech} Gen_{t,r,tech} + \sum_{r2} Trans_{t, r2, r} = Demand_{t,r} + \sum_{r2} Trans_{t, r, r2} + Storage_{out, t, r} - Storage_{in, t, r}$ ga duk awowi $t$, yankuna $r$.
• Iyakar Ƙarfi: $Gen_{t,r,tech} \leq CF_{t,r,tech} \cdot Cap_{r, tech}$ inda $CF$ shine ma'aunin ƙarfi na kowane awa.
• Dynamics na Ma'ajiyar Kaya: $E_{t+1, r} = E_{t, r} + \eta_{in} \cdot Storage_{in, t, r} - \frac{1}{\eta_{out}} \cdot Storage_{out, t, r}$
• Gudanar da Tafkin Ruwa: Ƙa'idodin ƙirar shigar ruwa, iyakokin ma'ajiyar kaya, da mafi ƙarancin kwararowar muhalli.

Ana ƙirar tsarin PtG tare da inganci $\eta_{PtG}$ (misali, ~58% don SNG), yana haɗa shigar wutar lantarki $E_{in}$ zuwa fitar gas $G_{out}$: $G_{out} = \eta_{PtG} \cdot E_{in}$.

5. Sakamakon Gwaji & Bayanin Chati

Chati 1: Ƙarfin da aka Saka ta Tsarin Labari
Chati mai tsayi zai nuna GW na ƙarfi don hasken rana PV, iska, ruwa, da injinan gas (don goyon baya a wasu tsarin labari) a cikin tsarin labari huɗu. Tsarin labari na "Haɗaɗɗe" yana nuna mafi girman jimillar ƙarfi saboda ƙarin buƙata daga PtG.

Chati 2: Bayanin Samarwa na Kowane Awa don Maimaita Yanki (misali, Kudu maso Gabashin Brazil)
Chati mai layi da yawa a cikin mako guda zai nuna samar da makamashin ruwa yana daidaita manyan kololuwar rana daga hasken rana PV da ƙarin sauye-sauyen fitarwa daga iska. Tasirin "batura na zamani" yana bayyana a fili yayin da samar da makamashin ruwa ya ragu a lokacin rana/iska kuma yana ƙaruwa da dare ko a lokacin hutawa.

Chati 3: Rarrabuwar Farashin Tsarin
Chati ɗin kek don Tsarin Labari na Haɗaɗɗe yana nuna rabon jimillar farashin shekara-shekara da aka danganta ga: Solar PV CAPEX & OPEX, Wind CAPEX & OPEX, Cibiyar Sadarwar HVDC, Masana'antar Makamashi-zuwa-Gas, da Masana'antar Tsarkake Ruwa. Wannan yana nuna yanayin jari mai yawa na canji.

6. Tsarin Nazari: Misalin Tsarin Labari

Harka: Kimanta Faɗaɗa Cibiyar Sadarwa da Ma'ajiyar Kaya na Gida
Wani ma'aikaci a Chile (babban hasken rana) yana la'akari da ko zai saka hannun jari a cikin sabon layin HVDC zuwa Argentina (isaka/hydro mai dacewa) ko kuma ya gina babban gonar baturi.

Aikace-aikacen Tsarin:
1. Ayyana Nodes: Chile (Node A), Argentina (Node B).
2. Shigar Bayanai: CF na hasken rana na kowane awa don A, CF na iska/ruwa na kowane awa don B, bayanan buƙata, farashin jari don layin HVDC ($/MW-km) da batura ($/kWh).
3. Gudanar da Bambance-bambancen Tsarin:
- Bambance-bambancen 1 (Keɓaɓɓe): Node A dole ne ta cika bukatunta a gida, tana buƙatar babban ƙarfin baturi don rufe dare.
- Bambance-bambancen 2 (Haɗaɗɗe): An haɗa Nodes A da B tare da layin HVDC na ƙayyadadden ƙarfi. Za a iya aika hasken rana mai yawa daga A zuwa B a cikin rana; da dare, ruwa/iska daga B na iya samar da A.
4. Inganta & Kwatanta: Tsarin yana rage jimillar farashin duka bambance-bambancen biyu. Sakamakon yawanci yana nuna cewa ko da tare da farashin watsawa, Bambance-bambancen 2 yana da arha saboda rage buƙatar ma'ajiyar kaya mai tsada a A da ingantaccen amfani da ruwa mai sassauci da ake da shi a B. Wannan yana kwatanta ainihin binciken na asali akan ƙimar watsawa.

7. Bincike Mai Zurfi & Fassarar Kwararru

Hankali na Asali: Wannan binciken ba kawai fantasy kore ba ne; yana da tsarin injiniya mai ƙarfi wanda ke bayyana ɓoyayyen ƙimar kuɗi da dabarun da ke cikin abubuwan more rayuwa na ruwa da ake da shi a Kudancin Amurka. Ainihin nasara ita ce sake tsara madatsun ruwa ba kawai a matsayin masu samar da wutar lantarki ba, amma a matsayin masu daidaita cibiyar sadarwa na nahiyar, marasa farashi na gefe—"batura na zamani" wanda zai iya adana daruruwan biliyoyin sabbin saka hannun jari na ma'ajiyar kaya. Wannan yana juya yuwuwar rauni na yanayi (canjin yanayin ruwa) zuwa ginshiƙi na juriya.

Kwararar Hankali: Hujja tana da ban sha'awa a layi daya: 1) Makamashi mai sabuntawa masu canzawa (hasken rana/iska) yanzu su ne mafi arha hanyoyin samu. 2) Rashin ci gaba su ne babbar matsala. 3) Kudancin Amurka tana da mafita ta musamman, da aka riga aka biya—babban jirgin ruwanta—wanda za'a iya sake inganta shi ta hanyar dijital don aikin ma'ajiyar kaya na farko. 4) Ƙara "igiyoyi" na HVDC tsakanin yankuna masu dacewa (misali, iska Patagonia zuwa hasken rana Arewa maso Gabashin Brazil) yana haifar da tasirin baturi na yanki, yana ƙara rage farashi. 5) A ƙarshe, amfani da ƙarin electrons masu sabuntawa don yin kwayoyin halitta (gas) da ruwa yana magance matsalolin masana'antu da ƙarancin biliyoyin dala, yana haifar da zagayowar tattalin arziki mai kyau.

Ƙarfi & Kurakurai:
Ƙarfi: Ƙirar kowane awa ita ce mafi kyawun zamani kuma ba za a iya sasantawa ba don ingantaccen binciken RE. Haɗin sassa (PtG, tsarkake ruwa) yana motsawa fiye da aikin ilimi zuwa alaƙar manufofin duniya na gaske. Yin amfani da ruwan da ake da shi shine babban nasara na tunani mai aiki.
Kurakurai: Kyawun tsarin yana rufe manyan cikas na siyasa da ƙa'ida. Gina cibiyoyin sadarwar HVDC masu faɗin nahiyar ya ƙunshi mafarkai na ikon mallakar ƙasa kamar yadda EU ke gwagwarmaya. Tsarin lokaci na 2030 yana da bege sosai don kuɗin aikin da izini na wannan girma. Hakanan yana ɗaukar lasisin zamantakewa don sabon babban abin more rayuwa, wanda ke ƙara fafatawa. Kiyasin farashin, yayin da aka ambata zuwa 2015, yana buƙatar sabuntawa cikin gaggawa bayan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na 2022 da girgizar sarkar samarwa.

Hankali Mai Aiki:
1. Ga Masu Tsara Dokoki: Nan da nan sake fasalin ƙirar kasuwannin wutar lantarki don ba da lada ta kuɗi ga sassauci da ƙarfi (ba kawai makamashi ba). Yakamata a biya masu aikin ruwa don "aikin daidaitawa" kamar batura.
2. Ga Masu Saka Hannun Jari: Babbar dama na ɗan gajeren lokaci ba ta cikin sabbin gonakin hasken rana ba—tana cikin dijital da tsarin sarrafa makamashin ruwa da ake da shi don haɓaka kudaden shigarsu na daidaita cibiyar sadarwa.
3. Ga Gwamnatoci: Fara da yarjejeniyoyin "gadar makamashi" na kasashen biyu (misali, Chile-Argentina) a matsayin ayyukan gwaji. Mayar da hankali kan R&D akan rage farashin CAPEX na electrolyzer na PtG, domin wannan shine mabuɗin don tsarin labari na haɗaɗɗe.
4. Hanyar Muhimmanci: Mafi mahimmancin abin nasara guda ɗaya shine watsawa. Idan ba tare da shi ba, baturan zamani ya kasance cikin rarrabuwa. Ya kamata Ƙungiyar Cibiyar Sadarwa ta Pan-Amurka, wacce aka ƙirƙira akan TEN-E na Turai, ta zama fifikon diflomasiyya.

8. Aikace-aikace na Gaba & Hanyoyin Bincike

• Fitar Hydrogen Kore: Ana iya faɗaɗa ɓangaren PtG na tsarin don ƙirar samar da hydrogen kore mai girma don fitarwa zuwa Turai da Asiya, canza Kudancin Amurka zuwa babbar ƙarfin makamashi mai sabuntawa.
• Ƙirar Juriyar Yanayi: Aikin nan gaba dole ne ya haɗa ƙarin ƙirar yanayi don gwada tsarin akan sauye-sauyen da ake hasashe a cikin zagayowar ruwa da tsarin iska.
• Haɗa Albarkatun Makamashi da aka Rarraba (DERs): Haɗa hasken rana na rufin, ma'ajiyar kaya a bayan ma'auni, da cajin motocin lantarki cikin tsarin don fahimtar tasirinsu akan tsarin cibiyar sadarwa ta tsakiya.
• Ƙimar Ma'ajiyar Kaya Mai Ci Gaba: Cikakken bincike na ƙimar tattalin arziki da sassaucin makamashin ruwa ke bayarwa, ƙirƙirar ma'auni na daidaitawa don jawo hankalin saka hannun jari don zamani.
• Simulation na Manufofi & Kasuwa: Haɗa tsarin fasaha-tattalin arziki tare da ƙirar tushen wakili don yin simintin tsarin ƙa'ida, halayen saka hannun jari, da yarjejeniyoyin cinikin wutar lantarki ta ketare.

9. Nassoshi

1. Bankin Duniya. (2016). Alamomin Ci gaban Duniya. Ci gaban GDP (kashi % na shekara).
2. Hukumar Makamashi ta Duniya (IEA). (2014). Duba Makamashin Duniya 2014.
3. Hukumar Makamashi ta Duniya (IEA). (2015). Mahimman Ƙididdiga na Makamashin Duniya 2015.
4. Hukumar Bayanan Makamashi ta Amurka (EIA). (2015). Ƙididdiga na Makamashi na Duniya.
5. de Jong, P., et al. (2015). Makamashin ruwa, canjin yanayi da rashin tabbas a Brazil. Bita na Makamashi Mai Sabuntawa da Dorewa.
6. ONS (Ma'aikacin Cibiyar Sadarwa ta Ƙasa ta Brazil). (2015). Rahotannin Aiki na Mako-mako.
7. EPE (Ofishin Binciken Makamashi na Brazil). (2015). Ma'auni na Makamashi na Brazil 2015.
8. Bogdanov, D., & Breyer, C. (2016). Babban Cibiyar Sadarwa ta Arewa maso Gabashin Asiya don samar da makamashi mai sabuntawa 100%: Mafi kyawun gaurayawan fasahohin makamashi don zaɓuɓɓukan samar da wutar lantarki, gas da zafi. Gudanar da Canjin Makamashi. (Don mahallin hanyoyin bincike).
9. Hukumar Makamashi Mai Sabuntawa ta Duniya (IRENA). (2020). Duba Makamashi Mai Sabuntawa na Duniya: Canjin Makamashi 2050. (Don sabunta farashi da bayanan yuwuwar).
10. Jacobson, M.Z., et al. (2015). 100% tsabta da makamashi mai sabuntawa na iska, ruwa, da hasken rana (WWS) duk hanyoyin makamashi na sassa don ƙasashe 139 na duniya. Joule. (Don kwatanta hanyoyin binciken 100% RE).