1. Gabatarwa
Wannan takarda tana magance kalubalen zaɓin mafi kyawun wurare don ajiyar wutar lantarki ta hasken rana (PV) a Taiwan. Gaggawar tana fitowa ne daga buƙatar duniya don canzawa daga man fetur zuwa makamashi mai sabuntawa, wani sauyi da annobar Covid-19 da kuma buƙatun canjin yanayi suka ƙara ƙarfafa. Taiwan, wadda ta dogara sosai kan shigo da man fetur kuma tana cikin yanki mai girgizar ƙasa, tana kallon ci gaban makamashin rana a matsayin mabuɗin tsaro da dorewar tattalin arziki.
1.1 Halin Makamashi Mai Sabuntawa a Duniya
Takardar ta sanya binciken a cikin ƙoƙarin duniya kamar Yarjejeniyar Paris da Yarjejeniyar Kore ta Turai, da nufin samun sifili na hayaki. Ta bayyana juriyar makamashi mai sabuntawa a lokacin rikicin Covid-19, inda samar da wutar lantarki daga makamashi mai sabuntawa ya karu da kashi 5% a cikin 2020 duk da cikas.
1.2 Yuwuwar Makamashin Rana
An gano makamashin rana a matsayin mafi dacewar tushen makamashi mai sabuntawa ga Taiwan saboda yanayin yanki da yanayi. Duk da haka, ƙuntatawar ƙasa, ƙalubalen manufofi, da matsalolin girma suna kawo cikas ga ci gaba, wanda hakan ya sa zaɓin wuri na tsari ya zama dole.
2. Hanyar Bincike: Tsarin MCDM Mai Matakai Biyu
Babbar gudummawar ita ce sabuwar hanyar yanke shawara ta Ma'auni Da Yawa (MCDM) mai matakai biyu wadda ta haɗa Nazarin Ingantaccen Bayanai (DEA) da Tsarin Nazarin Matsayi (AHP).
2.1 Mataki na 1: Nazarin Ingantaccen Bayanai (DEA)
An yi amfani da DEA a matsayin mataki na farko don tantance ingantaccen amfani da albarkatun ƙasa na birane/ƙananan hukumomi 20 masu yuwuwa. Tana ɗaukar wurare a matsayin Rukunoni na Yanke Shawara (DMUs).
- Abubuwan Shigarwa: Yanayin zafi, Gudun Iska, Danshi, Ruwan Sama, Matsin Iska.
- Abubuwan Fitowa: Sa'o'in Hasken Rana, Ƙarfin Hasken Rana.
Wuraren da suka sami cikakkiyar maki na inganci na 1.0 suna ci gaba zuwa mataki na gaba.
2.2 Mataki na 2: Tsarin Nazarin Matsayi (AHP)
An yi amfani da AHP don sanya matsayi ga ingantattun wurare daga Mataki na 1 bisa ga ƙarin ma'auni na zamantakewa-fasaha-tattalin arziki-muhalli. Ya ƙunshi kwatanta biyu-biyu don samun ma'auni na ma'auni da makin wuri na ƙarshe.
2.3 Ma'auni da Tsarin Ma'auni na Ƙarami
An tsara samfurin AHP tare da manyan ma'auni biyar da ma'auni 15 na ƙarami:
- Siffofin Wuri: Gangaren ƙasa, Nau'in amfani da ƙasa, Nisa zuwa cibiyar wutar lantarki.
- Fasaha: Ƙarfin hasken rana, Sa'o'in hasken rana, Yanayin zafi.
- Tattalin Arziki: Kudin saka hannun jari, Kudin aiki & Kulawa, Kudin watsa wutar lantarki, Hanyoyin tallafi (misali, farashin shigar da wutar lantarki).
- Zamantakewa: Karɓuwar jama'a, Ƙirƙirar ayyukan yi, Bukatar amfani da wutar lantarki.
- Muhalli: Rage hayakin carbon, Tasirin muhalli.
3. Nazarin Lamari: Taiwan
3.1 Tattara Bayanai & Wurare Masu Yuwuwa
Binciken ya tantance manyan biranen da ƙananan hukumomi 20 a duk faɗin Taiwan. An tattara bayanan yanayi (abubuwan shigarwa/fitarwa don DEA) da bayanan tattalin arziki da zamantakewa (don AHP) daga hanyoyin Taiwan na hukuma kamar Ofishin Yanayi na Tsakiya da Ma'aikatar Tattalin Arziki.
3.2 Sakamakon Nazarin Ingantaccen Aiki na DEA
Samfurin DEA ya tace wuraren da ba su da ingantaccen amfani da albarkatun ƙasa. Birane/ƙananan hukumomi ne kawai waɗanda suka canza abubuwan shigar yanayi (kamar matsakaicin zafi da ƙarancin danshi) zuwa abubuwan fitar da makamashin rana (yawan hasken rana da ƙarfin hasken rana) suka sami maki 1.0. Wannan mataki ya rage yawan ɗan takara don ƙarin cikakken binciken AHP.
3.3 Ma'auni na AHP & Matsayin Ƙarshe
Kwatancen biyu-biyu na AHP ya bayyana mahimmancin ma'auni. Manyan ma'auni uku na ƙarami masu tasiri sune:
Wannan yana nuna cewa manufofi da abubuwan tattalin arziki (tallafi, farashi) da bukatar gida sun fi ƙarfin yanke shawara fiye da yuwuwar albarkatun rana kawai a cikin matsayi na ƙarshe.
4. Sakamako & Tattaunawa
4.1 Muhimman Binciken
Hanyar haɗakar DEA-AHP ta yi nasarar gano da kuma ba da fifiko ga wurare. Ƙarfin tsarin matakai biyu yana cikin tabbatar da yuwuwar albarkatun ƙasa da farko (DEA) kafin a tantance ƙarin yuwuwar (AHP), yana hana wurare masu arziƙin albarkatu amma ba za su iya aiki ba daga samun matsayi mai girma.
4.2 Wuraren da suka fi Daraja
Matsayin AHP na ƙarshe ya gano manyan wurare uku mafi dacewa don ci gaban gonakin makamashin rana mai girma a Taiwan:
- Birnin Tainan
- Gundumar Changhua
- Birnin Kaohsiung
Waɗannan yankuna sun haɗa ƙarfin albarkatun rana tare da kyakkyawan yanayin tattalin arziki (misali, hanyoyin tallafi da ake da su), ƙananan farashin watsawa, da babbar buƙatar wutar lantarki na gida.
5. Cikakkun Bayanai na Fasaha & Tsarin Lissafi
Tsarin DEA (Samfurin CCR): Ana samun makin inganci $ heta_k$ na DMU $k$ ta hanyar warware shirin layi: $$\text{Max } \theta_k = \sum_{r=1}^{s} u_r y_{rk}$$ $$\text{da sharuɗɗan: } \sum_{i=1}^{m} v_i x_{ik} = 1$$ $$\sum_{r=1}^{s} u_r y_{rj} - \sum_{i=1}^{m} v_i x_{ij} \leq 0, \quad j=1,...,n$$ $$u_r, v_i \geq \epsilon > 0$$ inda $x_{ij}$ suke shigarwa, $y_{rj}$ suke fitarwa, $v_i$ da $u_r$ suke ma'auni, kuma $\epsilon$ shine ƙaramin abu mara Archimedean.
Binciken Daidaiton AHP: Mataki mai mahimmanci shine tabbatar da cewa matrix na kwatancen biyu-biyu $A$ yana da daidaito. Ana lissafta Ma'auni na Daidaito ($CI$) da Ma'auni na Daidaito ($CR$): $$CI = \frac{\lambda_{max} - n}{n-1}$$ $$CR = \frac{CI}{RI}$$ inda $\lambda_{max}$ shine babban eigenvalue, $n$ shine girman matrix, kuma $RI$ shine Ma'auni na Bazuwar. $CR < 0.1$ yana karɓuwa.
6. Tsarin Nazari: Misalin Lamari
Labari: Tantance wuraren ɗan takara biyu, "Birnin A" da "Gundumar B," bayan tacewa na farko na DEA.
Mataki na 1 - Ma'auni na Ma'auni (AHP): Kwararru suna yin kwatancen biyu-biyu. Misali, kwatanta tasirin "Tattalin Arziki" da "Muhalli" na iya haifar da maki 3 (matsakaicin mahimmancin Tattalin Arziki akan Muhalli). Wannan yana cika matrix na kwatancen don samun ma'auni na duniya (misali, Tattalin Arziki: 0.35, Muhalli: 0.10).
Mataki na 2 - Makin Wuri akan Kowane Ma'auni: Ƙididdige kowane wuri akan kowane ma'auni na ƙarami akan ma'auni (misali, 1-9). Don "Hanyoyin Tallafi," idan Birnin A yana da kyakkyawan farashin shigar da wutar lantarki (maki=9) kuma Gundumar B tana da ƙarancin tallafi (maki=3), ana daidaita waɗannan.
Mataki na 3 - Haɗawa: Makin ƙarshe na Birnin A = $\sum (\text{Ma'auni na Ƙarami} \times \text{Makin Daidaitaccen Birnin A})$. Wurin da ya fi girma jimlar maki yana da fifiko.
Wannan tsari, tsarin ƙididdiga yana maye gurbin yanke shawara na lokaci-lokaci tare da bayyana gaskiya da bin diddigin.
7. Hangen Nesa na Aikace-aikace & Hanyoyin Gaba
- Haɗawa tare da GIS: Aikin gaba ya kamata ya haɗa wannan hanyar MCDM tare da Tsarin Bayanan Yanayin Ƙasa (GIS) don ganin sararin samaniya da nazarin dacewar ƙasa, ƙirƙirar kayan aikin tallafawa yanke shawara masu ƙarfi.
- Samfuran Ƙarfafawa & Yiwuwa: Haɗa bayanan lokaci-lokaci da hasashen yiwuwar canjin yanayi da farashin wutar lantarki na iya sa samfurin ya dace da canje-canjen gaba.
- Haɗawa da wasu hanyoyin MCDM: Haɗa AHP tare da dabarun kamar TOPSIS ko VIKOR na iya ɗaukar rashin tabbas ko ma'auni masu karo da juna da ƙarfi.
- Faɗaɗa Aikace-aikace: Wannan tsari mai matakai biyu yana da sauƙin canzawa zuwa wasu matsalolin zaɓin wurin makamashi mai sabuntawa (misali, iska, zafi) a cikin yanayin yanki daban-daban.
- Haɗawa da Dorewar Rayuwa: Faɗaɗa ma'aunin muhalli zuwa cikakken Ƙididdigar Tsarin Rayuwa (LCA) zai tantance sawun carbon na masana'antu da rushewar allunan PV.
8. Nassoshi
- Kwamitin Tsakanin Gwamnatoci kan Canjin Yanayi (IPCC). (2021). Canjin Yanayi 2021: Tushen Kimiyyar Jiki. Jaridar Jami'ar Cambridge.
- Majalisar Dinkin Duniya. (2015). Yarjejeniyar Paris. Tarin Yarjejeniyar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya.
- Hukumar Turai. (2019). Yarjejeniyar Kore ta Turai. COM(2019) 640 na ƙarshe.
- Hukumar Makamashi ta Duniya (IEA). (2020). Hangen Makamashin Duniya 2020. OECD/IEA.
- Hukumar Makamashi Mai Sabuntawa ta Duniya (IRENA). (2021). Makamashi Mai Sabuntawa da Ayyukan Yi – Bita na Shekara 2021.
- Charnes, A., Cooper, W. W., & Rhodes, E. (1978). Auna ingancin rukunoni na yanke shawara. Jaridar Ayyukan Turai, 2(6), 429-444.
- Saaty, T. L. (1980). Tsarin Nazarin Matsayi. McGraw-Hill.
- Wang, C. N., Nguyen, N. A. T., Dang, T. T., & Bayer, J. (2021). Yanke Shawara na Ma'auni Da Yawa Mai Matakai Biyu don Zaɓin Wurin Ajiyar Wutar Lantarki ta Hasken Rana (PV): Nazarin Lamari a Taiwan. IEEE Access, 9, 75509-75522. DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3081995.
9. Nazarin Kwararru & Bita Mai mahimmanci
Babban Fahimta: Wannan takarda ba wani binciken zaɓin wuri kawai ba ce; ta zama tsarin aiki don rage haɗarin saka hannun jari a cikin kayan aikin makamashi mai sabuntawa. Ainihin fahimtar ita ce ma'anar jeri: yi amfani da DEA don tacewa da ƙarfi don ingantaccen amfani da albarkatun ƙasa da farko—wani ƙofar da ba za a iya sasantawa ba, wanda ya dogara da kimiyyar lissafi—kafin a bar ma'auni masu sauƙi, masu nauyin manufofi na AHP su ƙaddara wanda ya ci nasara. Wannan yana hana kuskuren gama gari na zaɓar wurin da ya dace da siyasa amma yanayi mara kyau.
Kwararar Ma'ana: Kyawun hanyar binciken yana cikin rabon aiki. DEA tana ɗaukar tambayar "shin zai iya aiki a nan?" bisa ga rana, iska, da ruwan sama. AHP tana magance tambayar "shin ya kamata mu gina shi a nan?" bisa ga farashi, manufofi, da tasirin zamantakewa. Wannan yana kama da tsarin yanke shawara na masu ci gaba da gwamnatoci a duniyar gaske, yana motsawa daga yuwuwar fasaha zuwa yuwuwar aikin. Babban ma'auni da aka ba wa "Hanyoyin Tallafi" (0.332) shine bayyanannen gaskiya na gaskiya: kyakkyawan farashin shigar da wutar lantarki na iya fiye da ƙarin kashi na ƙarin ƙarfin hasken rana.
Ƙarfi & Kurakurai: Babban ƙarfi shine ƙarfin hanyar haɗakar da kuma tabbatar da ita a cikin rikitacciyar yanayi na duniyar gaske (Taiwan). Yin amfani da kafaffen kayan aiki da aka fahimta sosai (DEA, AHP) yana haɓaka maimaitawa. Duk da haka, samfurin yana da gibin da aka sani. Na farko, yana tsaye; bai yi la'akari da bambancin lokaci na albarkatun rana ko tasirin canjin yanayi na gaba ba, wani mahimmin la'akari da rahotannin IPCC na baya-bayan nan suka bayyana. Na biyu, dogaro da AHP akan kwatancen biyu-biyu na kwararru, yayin da yake daidaitacce, yana gabatar da son rai. Takardar za ta fi ƙarfi idan ta ƙara wannan da nazarin hankali ko kuma ta yi amfani da hanyar AHP mai ruɗani don ɗaukar rashin tabbas, kamar yadda aka gani a cikin aikace-aikace masu ci gaba kamar waɗanda aka tattauna a shafukan hanyoyin RAND Corporation. Na uku, samuwar ƙasa da farashi—sau da yawa shine cikas na ƙarshe—da alama an binne su a cikin ma'auni na ƙarami. A yawancin kasuwanni, wannan shine babban cikas.
Fahimta Mai Aiki: Ga masu tsara manufofi a Taiwan da yankuna makamantansu, jerin manyan wurare (Tainan, Changhua, Kaohsiung) suna ba da mafari na tushen bayanai don maida hankali kan kayan aiki da ƙarfafawa. Ga masu ci gaba, tsarin shine lissafin bincike da aka riga aka yi. Mataki na gaba nan da nan ya kamata a haɗa wannan samfurin tare da babban bayanan GIS don motsawa daga matakin birni zuwa matakin yanki. Bugu da ƙari, kwatanta wannan sakamakon DEA-AHP da sakamakon samfuran dacewar wuri na tushen koyon inji—kamar waɗanda ake amfani da su sosai a cikin tsarin gonar iska—zai zama muhimmin alkibla don gwada haɗuwa (ko rarrabuwa) na dabaru daban-daban. A ƙarshe, wannan aikin yana ba da ingantaccen tushe na aiki. Nan gaba yana cikin sanya shi mai ƙarfi, bayyananne a sarari, kuma mai iya shigar da rafukan bayanai na ainihin lokaci.